By Lucy Ogalue
Researchers have reiterated the crucial role trade plays in propelling resilience and ensuring inclusive growth on the African continent.
They spoke while presenting various papers on “Trade in Africa under Uncertainty” at the just concluded African Economic Conference in Gaborone, Botswana.
The News Agency of Nigeria (NAN) reports that the conference was co-hosted by the United Nations Economic Commission for Africa (ECA), the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), and the African Development Bank (AfDB) and supported by the Botswana government.
The researchers presented compelling evidence on how trade openness reduced unemployment, innovation drove global competitiveness, and fiscal strategies mitigated external shocks.
The session underlined actionable insights, including diversifying exports, fostering inclusive policies, and harmonising regional trade agreements to strengthen Africa’s economic position amidst global unpredictability.
One of the researchers, Quadri Abdulyekeen, in his presentation on “Trade Liberalisation Impact on Labour Dynamics in Sub-Saharan Africa,” `, explored the effects of trade liberalisation on employment patterns across six demographic categories.
Abdulyekeen said the study, using panel data from 37 countries over 16 years, found that trade openness correlated with reduced unemployment, especially among youth and women.
“A unit increase in trade openness leads to a 0.5 percentage point decrease in national unemployment, thus, the potential of trade to drive inclusive growth,” he said.
However, a discussant, Dr Oyabanke Aberjirin of the Development Planning, ECA, urged the authors to integrate sectoral insights and reflect on uncertainties to align the research with the conference’s overarching theme.
Also Shakirudeen Taiwo, while presenting on “Integration of Africa into Global Value Chains and Emerging Macroeconomic Fluctuations,” emphasised Africa’s vulnerabilities to external shocks stemming from global value chain integration.
Taiwo underlined that resource-rich countries were particularly susceptible to price shocks, while non-resource-rich economies faced currency instability.
“Diversifying export baskets and increasing fiscal buffers can mitigate these impacts, as seen in Nigeria’s resilience during the 2008 financial crisis.
The discussant, Mr Abdoul Ouedraogo of ECA, praised the researcher’s use of the Global Vector Autoregressive model.
However, he advocated for more detailed visuals and expanded policy recommendations to enhance clarity and practical application of the work.
Mr Ibrahim Nana, from the World Bank, presented “The Heterogeneous Effects of Uncertainty on Trade,” examining how uncertainties ranging from geopolitical risks to pandemics influence trade dynamics.
According to Nana, the findings show that import-side uncertainties have a more pronounced negative impact than export-side uncertainties.
“Mitigating uncertainty’s adverse effects requires strategic integration into global value chains and robust geopolitical strategies,” Nana said.
Discussant Jean Kilolo of the ECA commended the paper’s empirical strengths while recommending a more robust handling of deeper contextual insights, particularly regarding Africa’s unique trade dynamics.
In his presentation, Thierno Diallo explored the role of innovations in Francophone Africa’s participation in global value chains.
“The research revealed that firms investing in research and development (R&D) are significantly more likely to integrate into value chains.
“Small firms thrive with access to foreign technology and digital tools, while large firms benefit from process innovations,” Diallo stated.
Discussant Olayinka Bandele of ECA commended the analysis but called for qualitative case studies to uncover nuanced drivers of innovation and trade competitiveness.
Canicio Dzingirai’s presentation and discussion on “Exports, Imports, and Economic Growth: Asymmetric Trilogy in Namibia” tackled crucial questions regarding Namibia’s trade strategies.
Dzingirai said the study focused on the balance between regional integration, broader international trade, and Namibia’s involvement in three economic blocks.
He said the blocks are the Southern African Customs Union (SACU), Southern African Development Community (SADC) and Common Monetary Area (CMA).
He said the work also analysed how these affiliations impacted its economic growth amidst persistent trade deficits.
Dr Amal Elbeshbishi, ECA, noted that while Namibia’s regional trade blocks, like the Southern African Customs Union (SACU), provided resilience to shocks, its global trade relationships drove more significant economic growth. “Aligning and harmonising tariff agreements between regional blocs is essential to optimise trade strategies,” he said.
The researchers agreed that trade, uncertainty, and resilience are critical interplays in Africa’s economic trajectory.
The presentations and discussions illuminated actionable pathways, including fostering inclusive trade policies, enhancing fiscal preparedness, and driving innovation through targeted investments.
NAN